2012-12-11(仅作参考)瑞士信贷--China Oil and Gas Sector:Auld Lang Syne
Sinopec: Hope ran high as we entered 2012 that a new refining mechanism was just around the corner; in reality, refiners suffered in 1H12 and caught up in 2H12. We expect 2013 to reflect 2H12 refining, with a modest chemical uptick to beat 2012 (already priced in). Click here for full report.CNOOC turned around production in 2012, but all eyes are on the Nexen deal, which we see as fairly priced and value/skills accretive. As we enter 2013, the focus turns to the ongoing organic growth and execution of the Nexen integration.
PetroChina: 2012 started so well. The first week saw the new gas price trial linking to crude derivatives, but the rollout has been slower than anticipated. We still believe in the long-term direction of crude price linkage but think consensus’ 2013 expectations are already setting a high bar for PetroChina to meet, never mind exceed.
COSL: 15% EPS growth with earnings upside: In 2013 we should see COSL’s two new semi-subs start contributing to the top line. The key is when and how COSL utilises its US$1 bn notes issuance-if COSL buys more second-hand rigs to meet near-term demand in SCS, we could see further upside from current expectations.
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