2012-12-13(仅作参考)摩根士丹利亚洲--China Construction &
Quick Comment: In Nov, monthly railway infrastructureinvestment jumped 142% YoY, pushing YTD growth upto 9% YoY; monthly total railway investment was up31% YoY, and its YTD12 investment was up 3% YoY.However, monthly railway equipment and maintenanceinvestment dropped 65% YoY and its YTD12 investmentwas down 21% YoY. The equipment segment’s weakperformance is in line with the key findings from ourrecent capital goods trip, that high-speed MUs plants’production utilization rate is quite low. We continue toprefer infrastructure construction to rolling stock, andremain OW on CCCC and CRCC.
MOR should be able to meet its 2012 investmenttarget. The MOR has finished infrastructure investmentof Rmb432 bn, total investment of Rmb507 bn inJan-Nov, accounting for 84% and 80%, respectively, ofits full-year infrastructure FAI and total FAI targets for2012. Given that Dec’s investment has contributed~20% of annual investment in the past few years, we areconfident the MOR can meet its 2012 investment target.
Nov railway transportation: After five months’ YoYdecline, monthly railway freight transport turnover turnedinto growth at 2.4% YoY in Nov, thanks to the recoveryin China’s power generation. However, YTD12 railwayfreight turnover was down 1.0% YoY.
Monthly passenger turnover growth accelerated to 6.5%YoY in Nov (2.1% YoY in Oct), as more new lines startedoperations. However, YTD12 passenger turnover wasup only 2.7% YoY, lower than the MOR’s plan at thestart of the year. The MUs’ passenger transport volumewas up around 18% YoY in YTD12, lower than thetrains’ population growth (up ~25% YoY). This impliesthe trains’ utilization rate is still declining, and shouldconstrain next years’ MUs demand.
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