2012-12-13(仅作参考)中信证券国际--Comment on 12th Five-Y
The basically in-line Plan highlights infrastructure construction and institutional reform.As at end-2010, China had proven geological reserve of 9.13trn m3 and remaining technologicallyexploitable reserve of 3.78trn m3. The Plan points out that, during the 12th FYP period: (i) proven geologicalreserve of conventional natural gas will increase 3.5trn m3 (+38.3% from end-2010), with an increase of~1.9trn m3 in technologically exploitable reserve (+50.3% from end-2010); and (ii) proven geologicalreserve of coal seam gas will advance 1trn m3. By 2015E, the proven geological reserve of shale gas willcome in at 600bn m3, with exploitable reserve of 200bn m3.
The Plan estimates supply of home-grown natural gas to reach ~176bn m3 in 2015E, consisting of:(i) conventional natural gas of ~138.5bn m3; (ii) SNG of ~15-18bn m3; (iii) coal seam gas of ~16bn m3(through ground development and production); and (iv) shale gas of 6.5bn m3. According to signedcontracts, China’s annual natural gas imports will reach ~93.5bn m3 by 2015E. It is expected that naturalgas consumption will grow more than 20bn m3 annually during the 12th FYP period and will reach 230bn m3y 2015E. The Plan urges to strengthen E&D in four major gas areas (i.e. Ordos Basin, Sichuan Basin,Tarim Basin and South China Sea) and to form four large natural production areas with annual capacity ofmore than 20bn m3 at the end of 12th FYP period, with specifically: (i) Tarim Basin: annual capacity of 32bnm3; (ii) Ordos Basin: annual capacity of 39bn m3; (iii) South-western gas area, centering Sichuan Basin andits surrounding areas: annual capacity of 41bn m3; and (iv) South China Sea gas area (a major offshorenatural gas producer): annual capacity of 20bn m3, so as to meet the planned home-grown gas outputtarget.
With respect to infrastructure construction, the Plan encourages diversified investments in natural gasinfrastructure. During the 12th FYP period, new natural gas pipeline (including feeder line) will come in at44k km, up 110% from end-2010, and new trunk pipeline transmission capacity will total ~150bn m3/year;working capacity of new gas storages will reach ~22bn m3, up more than 11-fold from end-2010,accounting for ~9% of the total natural gas consumption in 2015E (in late-2010, the percentage was 1.7%,vs. the global average: 12%); city emergency and peak storage capacity will hit 1.5bn m3.
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