2012-12-19(仅作参考)摩根士丹利亚洲--China Insurance:Six-point Guide for 2013
We are maintaining our In-Line view for Chineseinsurers heading into 2013– we see the industryfacing more challenges than opportunities. Ourorder of preference is CPIC, Ping An, China Life,CTIH and NCI.More challenges than opportunities in 2013. Insurersoverall had mixed performance in 2012and we expectthe same in 2013. Valuation and a recovery in A-sharescould help the industry outperform relative to the HSCEI,but also consider the following risks:
1. VNB growth could remain lackluster. MostChinese insurers are targeting sub-10% VNBgrowth for 2013, based on our recent discussionswith them. We expect CPIC, NCI and Ping An toachieve 8-10% growth and project only 5% forChina Life.
2. Maturity payment peak could dictate productstrategy. The industry faces a peak in maturitypayments in 2013– topping Rmb200bn (China Lifealone has Rmb100bn). This could push insurers tochase premium flow rather than improve mix.
3. Capital raising concerns remain high. We seeCTIH and NCI as the most likely to raise capital andregard CPIC as the least likely.
4. Potential increase in surrenders from lowerproduct yield. Given the weak investment yield in2012, we expect insurers to declare lower pardividend yields and lower crediting rates in 2013.This could influence surrender rates.
5. Regulatory risks could be mixed. We continue toanticipate the approval of the Shanghai pensionpilot program. In P&C, motor premium deregulationcould be implemented.
6. Potential changes to EV assumptions. Discountrates could be lowered to match a recently listed peer.
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